ESTIMATION OF GLACIAL DEBRIS FLOW CHARACTERISTICS USING A CHAIN OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS

The paper discusses the application of a chain mathematical models for calculating glacial debris flow. Modeling was carried out Bodomdara River valley case an outburst Lower Lake (Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, Tajikistan). FLOVI program, written in Python programming language, applied; it combines equations lake hydrograph and characteristics flow during its formation. To calculate flood hydrograph, model through intraglacial channel developed by Yu.B. Vinogradov used. Additional calculations were made with change length channel. With decrease 100 m, maximum discharge can increase 7% potential mudflow source assessed using transport-shift Since there no initial data on parameters source, author conducted numerical experiments. simulated FLO-2D hydrodynamic model. Calculations performed two scenarios: 1 – entire complex models, 2 without According to simulation results scenario 2, area zone found be less almost 19%. Thus, use makes possible obtain more realistic zones.